SMM11 March 2: the metal market on the outer disk rose and fell yesterday, with Lun Copper falling on Wednesday as optimism about vaccines to help end the novel coronavirus crisis faded, concerns about economic growth and demand resurfaced, while the rising dollar reinforced negative sentiment. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:30, Lun Aluminum and Lun Copper were up nearly 0.3%, Lun Pb was up nearly 0.2%, Lunxi was flat, Lun Zinc and Lun Ni were down nearly 0.3%. Domestically, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 1%, Shanghai Copper fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.1%, Shanghai Nickel and Shanghai Tin rose nearly 0.4%, and Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 0.5%. The US dollar rose against most GMY 10 currencies yesterday amid fears that another sharp rise in novel coronavirus cases around the world could hit economic growth.
In terms of copper, the global novel coronavirus epidemic continues to increase, with a total of more than 52.36 million confirmed cases. The number of new cases in a single day in the United States continued to rise for the ninth week, the death toll from the novel coronavirus epidemic in Britain exceeded 50, 000, and the number of confirmed cases in Germany reached the largest increase since the outbreak. The rebound in the epidemic has led to more uncertainty about the economic outlook. Market optimism about vaccines has cooled somewhat, and risk aversion has pushed the dollar higher, returning to above the 93 mark at night, with copper futures under obvious pressure.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the pressure on copper is obvious during the period when the US dollar rebounded during the continuous fermentation of the epidemic.
In terms of aluminum, Lun lead closed two times overnight, continuously paying attention to the impact of fluctuations in the US dollar index and confidence in global epidemic prevention and control on the market. Shanghai lead closed down overnight, the upward momentum is slightly insufficient, is expected to continue to shock in the short term. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to fall by 50-100 yuan per ton today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Lunlun lead closed up, Shanghai lead went down, recycled lead discount expanded.
On the zinc side, the overnight dollar strengthened, market optimism that vaccines would help end the novel coronavirus crisis faded, and fears that another sharp increase in global novel coronavirus cases hit economic growth resurfaced. In terms of zinc in Shanghai, according to SMM research, according to the recent air warning in many places in the north, under the influence of environmental protection, enterprises in many places have reduced production and stopped production, superimposed high shocks in zinc spot, and the margin of downstream demand has weakened, but TC continues to decline, and tight supply at the mine end still supports zinc prices.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc in Shanghai recorded a bald negative column last night, but the tight end of the mine still supports the price of zinc.
In terms of nickel, stainless steel continued to run weakly, hot and cold rolling prices fell again yesterday, transaction stimulation was limited, fundamental contradictions were concentrated downstream, the rest of the industrial chain was obviously dragged down, and ferronickel prices were successively compromised. Nickel prices are still relatively difficult to rise, and be vigilant that nickel prices will weaken again after short-term macro-positive factors are exhausted.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel strengthening spot transaction light stainless steel spot weakening drag Nickel Iron Down
Tin, spot prices fell slightly yesterday, the mainstream of the market up water: Yunxi 500-600 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount 400-500 yuan / ton, small brand discount 500-800 yuan / ton. Market trading is not smooth, downstream merchants wait and see more. Today's forecast: Shanghai tin is weak and volatile, the firm quotation of manufacturers has a certain support to the market, and the mainstream spot range is expected to be 145500-146500 yuan / ton today.
"[11.12 Forecast of Tin prices Today]
In terms of black, thread fell nearly 0.1%, hot coil fell nearly 0.2%, stainless steel fell nearly 1.3%, coking coal fell nearly 0.1%, coke fell nearly 1.3%, iron ore rose nearly 0.5%. According to SMM research, the blast furnace operating rate of SMM on November 12 was 88.29%, down 0.22% from last week and 0.52% from the same period last year. This week, environmental protection in Tangshan has become stricter again, and the routine maintenance of steel mills has also increased, driving the operating rate of blast furnaces to fall again.
[SMM Analysis] the production limit of environmental protection in Tangshan is tightening again. The operating rate of blast furnace continues to drop this week.
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 1.3%. On the news, OPEC+ focused on delaying the production plan by 3-6 months, also supporting the market that the organization had earlier lowered its demand forecast for crude oil. However, the novel coronavirus epidemic in Europe and the United States continues to spread. Tighter restrictions in New York and record hospitalization rates in the United States provide more warning signs about the risks of oil demand as the world waits for vaccines. At the same time, Libya has increased its oil production to more than 1.1 million barrels a day, closer to its pre-civil war level.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.3%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 0.2%. Comex gold futures closed lower on Wednesday, affected by the strength of the US dollar, while optimism around the potential novel coronavirus vaccine to enhance the hope of a rapid economic rebound prompted investors to turn to riskier assets. Some market participants believe that at present, there are two factors that are disadvantageous to gold, one is a strong stock market, and the other is a strong US dollar. Given that both markets are rising, it is hard for gold to continue to rise.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
"Click to view data
![Non-farm payrolls data was strong, platinum prices dropped sharply intraday, spot market trading was active [SMM Daily Comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/nQsOk20251217171736.jpg)
